With three weeks left to impress NRL optimists, final places are locked after 13 rounds

While the NRL can lead many teams out of the ladder who believe there is still hope, those who have a history against them forcing their way into the top eight to reach the final have a 14 percent chance of taking it. Place

Fans of the Raiders, Warriors, Dragons, Titans and Knights are hoping that one or two wins outside of the current top eight is a position from which they can recover, with very few teams doing so in the last decade as the competition reaches nominal levels. Halfway point in Round 13.

The data suggests that some media outlets insist that each season features a very close race to the finals, with the top-eight positions all but determined by the midfield points.

2022 is likely to be played in a similar manner, with Manly appearing to be the only real threat hanging in the balance at the bottom to enter Round 11.

Since 2012, only 11 teams have appeared in showpiece matches from outside the top eight after playing 13 rounds. As such, those teams are currently on edge and looking to create something of a season that has started off inconsistently with only three weeks left to make hay.

Otherwise, historical data will be among the longest odds for them to qualify for a final series that many would suggest they are not eligible to feature after shooting themselves in the leg for the first three months of the season.

In 2012, the Canberra Raiders were the only team to reach the eight after Round 13, then dropped out in the second week of the final.

The following year, both Newcastle and North Queensland conducted similarly, the cows were quickly eliminated and the Brave Knights made a decent run before being belted by the roosters in the preliminary finals.

Jared Mullen of the Knights

Jared Mullen of the Nights (Photo by Tony Feder / Getty Images)

2014 saw North Queensland and Melbourne hold their ground after a tough game towards the end of the season, yet none continued after the second week of the final, when the 2015 Cronula Sharks and the 2016 and 2017 Penrith teams achieved similar results.

In 2018, the top eight were set 13 weeks later, and Covid-infested 2020 actually featured a lock-in top eight after just 12 rounds. 2019 was a similar story, with the Broncos team pushing for their way to the final after 13 rounds, only for and against keeping them out at that stage of the campaign.

Most recently, the Knights and Titans managed great runs to reach eight at the end of 2021, yet both lost in the opening weekend.

Of the 11 teams that managed to maintain the trend and make it to the finals after the 13th round, five were sent off packing in the first week, the other five were eliminated the following week and only the 2013 Knights were able to advance to one. Preliminary finals.

What does this mean for 2022? Well if recent history tells us anything, there is probably a single change in the top eight after Round 13, yet there is a strong possibility that the teams scheduled to play in the final are already vying for positions with other competitors.

In a few weeks, the door will probably be closed for any pretender.

This means that teams ranked ninth to 14th in the ladder can make the best progress in the next three weeks, setting a winning run potentially in their eights and thus becoming one of the teams that can be difficult to avoid during the run. Home.

Basically, round 11 to 13 will determine the bottom half of the eight, with no change likely after that point.

Ideally, we might choose something a little more compelling throughout the last three months of the season, and parity across the NRL is a topic worth discussing, especially with the expansion we now have.

Who knows, maybe 2022 will bring something a little different. However, considering the type of play and the seeming perspective often in class, I will not hold my breath.

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