If you don’t notice, the origin of the kingdom is almost upon us. That means we have to pay close attention to things like ‘form’ and ‘smoky’ as if we were sitting behind a pub on a 50-year-old Wednesday afternoon, with a nose and small pen hand in the paper.
State of Origin represents a strange creature for those of us who think that rugby league is a game of systems and tactics, which can be analyzed using statistics, because almost none of the conversations that should take place around who should be chosen are meant for them. .
The source is unique because it is basically a meaningless all-star game, a sideshow baguette, but the most important game of the calendar, especially in the case of national spectators when no international game has been held.
Those of us who sit in on press conferences with coaches are constantly asked if the X Player would fit into the Origin Arena, although we know in depth that a) those coaches would rather play exclusively for their players and b) coach last year’s Origin team. Have a tendency to choose which is largely independent of the present form.
Of all the ‘smoky’ and ‘bolters’ that we discuss, the Origin coaches actually get only 10% of the squad’s chances a year, unless there are a lot of injuries or a side injury.
This year has been that much. The NSW has lost their frontline hubs (who aren’t hubs anyway, but need to be replaced), while Queensland has a much weaker squad and so more space is open.
With that in mind, I looked at the bit set of statistics to see who the numbers really should be for this year’s series: with some amazing results.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer / Getty Images)
Selwyn Cobo shouldn’t be anywhere near this group – for now
Okay, so the first choice ‘dilemma’ is the rise of Brisbane Broncos winger Selwin Cobo and whether he is now ready for the Origin Arena. The short answer is: if you take a sample size over the last three weeks, maybe, if you take longer, no.
We love to talk about form, but really, it’s no less about form than a huge resentment bias. If we assume that Origin is a defensive-first, attrition style of football, then at least for now, Kobo will be a terrific pick.
He averaged 125 meters – his direct rival Murray Toulagi at 123 meters – but this was largely helped by his record of 200 meters in the last three games. Prior to that, he operated only twice a year, or 20% of the time over 100 meters.
His last three games were also the first three where he did not record any errors – he had averaged three per game before, which is obviously quite bad.
In fact, in the original stats for the Origin-level winger, Kobo is not even the best alternative to the Broncos, as Corey Oates is good in almost every division and has already had the advantage of playing Origin for over three years.
The controversy has been Kobo vs. Toulagi, and the Cowboy winger easily wins the battle of numbers.
He has consistently tracked up to 123m on average this season, roughly the same as Cobbo, but has only gone below 100m once while making much smaller errors in the form of much larger specimens, signaling week-to-week continuity,
He plays every week with his inside block Valentine Homes, which brings with it all the adjustment standards. Cobbo may be the man for the future – but he is certainly not for the present.
Rees Walsh should get a run before Kalin Ponga
Our second Queensland question comes to their fullback, which is a direct shootout between two players from the garbage teams who are trying their best in the situation.
A bad Newcastle team has the amulet Kalin Ponga and a bad Warriors team has the amulet Rees Walsh. Ponga is responsible because he played three games last year, although Walsh was named for two games but then got injured.
The pair are quite comparable, as no one can play for a good team and both play the same role in that team as the primary creative force from behind.
If you’re looking at a data point attack, Walsh is obviously good. In a team that generates the worst go-forwards in the NRL, he builds more meters, tries harder, assists more line breaks, breaks more tackles and tries to contribute.
On the defensive side, Ponga is more secure, though it doesn’t say too much that both are too bad. For the set start, for example, Jaden Campbell would be the best option in Queensland, albeit in a smaller sample size, but NSW could choose five fullbacks who would be better.
Ponga ran on board with his outstanding Origin breakthrough in 2018, but has managed just four of the 12 games since his debut. He’s got some continuity values, but not many.
Walsh is younger and has the advantage that his stats come in much lower than his total assets – he gets the ball nine times less per game than Ponger – which means he is much more efficient at building offensive productivity.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe / Getty Images)
Must play RCG and go to Jurbo
For the Blues, you can almost immediately take 1-7 by looking at the strengths of the backline and the injuries that you see in the two walk-up starters of Tom Trobozevic and Lateral Mitchell. Stephen Crichton and Cotoni Stags are clearly the next men.
Forward, however, things can be very different. Several starters from 2021, especially Jack Trobozevic and Tariq Sims, are out of form and Cameron Murray is under the cloud of injury.
Middle forward rotation coach Brad Fitler has created a headscarf. Jake Trobozevic has been featured as a front row, lock and interchange forward in his 13 origins so far, but the argument for his inclusion in current form is hard to see.
Jurbo is one of the great defenders in the game, but Fitler will choose him as an expert defender at this stage: Isa Yo will work in the ball-playing position that Jack Manley plays, and if he doesn’t, there’s no point in him being there.
If you don’t pick Jack as a lock, you’re picking him as a prop and he’s far from the best option out there. If he doesn’t plan to tackle 50 and the football isn’t touched, then someone else has to be found.
So who will you bring? Well, for the middle option, it’s easy. There should be Reagan Campbell-Gillard.
RCG is one of the top five props in the league, for runs over 8 meters – the standard for a strong carry – and a player’s hit-up, ideal for tough carry.
There is another clear standout, though he will not be picked: David Klemer. Newcastle Prop actually surpasses the RCG in most metrics when presenting a similar statistical profile otherwise.
Klemer broke up with Fitler in 2019, but has not been considered since. If the numbers pick the team, he would go for it.
(Photo by Matt King / Getty Images)
Important Selection Topic (Ongoing)
The back row is far from cut and dried for the blues. Cam Murray has been sidelined with an injury, at least for one match, while Angus Crichton and Tariq Sims are in poor form.
Crichton almost gets a pass because he plays big minutes and tackles everything going on, managing an average of 30 per game with just one miss.
The Sims Jake is in a similar boat to Trobozevich. In 2022, he does not meter many, break many tackles or offload the ball. The Dragons are a weak team and the Sims don’t stand out, to say the least.
In the case of Edge Player, the case is a little more complicated. Presumably Angus Crichton has been picked, there is a strong case for Kyon Kolomatangi and Ryan Matterson for other places.
Matterson leads the vibrations on the running meter for the back-rovers when both are right there for 8m + runs, tackle breaks and runs per meter. Matterson is also great for offload and Kolomatangi scores well for line breaks.
The pair’s profile is similar in defense – the only area Sims equals them – but offers much more to the offensive side of the game than Dragon Man.
There is also a decent case for Tyson Frigel, who has not been featured for the Blues since 2020, to bring him back to the team.
Frizzel is defensively equal to Crichton – much better than the average back-rower – and ahead of him for tackle breaks. If Fitler decides he wants experience, he can do worse.